How close could it get?
Game margin, market comparison and the minutes question—all in one place.
The minutes question
Check a starter or bench player’s actual history on their current team. A large final margin does not automatically mean the fourth quarter was garbage time.
What the labels mean
Close: final margin of 5 or fewer. In between: 6–14. Blowout: final margin of 15 or more. These describe the final score, not how competitive every quarter will be.
Blowout risk: Low below 25%, Moderate 25–39%, High 40% or more. These are research bands. The model learns team strength and home advantage from past regular-season scores, with more weight on recent games. The market spread is a separate baseline. Injuries, lineups, pace and rest are shown as context, without invented player-value or minutes adjustments.
Probabilities use rolling historical forecast errors and remain experimental. Inspect the historical check before relying on them. Offseason trades and changed rotations can make older team results less representative.