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NBA model research · uncalibrated estimates, transparently tracked. NFL & historical ledger →
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Does the probability match the outcome?
Calibration below uses decided half-point and milestone lines. Push-capable integer lines are excluded. Small samples are descriptive, not proof of an edge.
| Probability band | Sample | Mean prediction | Actual hit rate | Evidence |
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Frozen forecasts
| Player | Stat / line | Side | Probability | Quality | Outcome | Version | Recorded |
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